every paper, one per strategy
Papers.
populace publishes one paper per strategy — the operator's or
referee's validation dossier. Each paper lives at
/{strategy}/paper, the stable citation
URL; this page is the index for CVs, grant reports, and academic
visitors.
Weight-aware imputation for policy microsimulation
Regime-gated, chained, weighted-bootstrap quantile-regression forests, benchmarked against unweighted/weighted QRF, OLS, linear quantile regression, and hot-deck matching. 21 pages.
read the paper →Gradient-descent survey calibration vs. classical calibration, at scale
Comparing modern gradient-descent calibration against raking, GREG, entropy balancing, and bounded chi-square. Plan and method scaffold only — no results yet.
read the plan →L0 regularization for subnational microsimulation calibration
Target-informed sparse sampling: keeps 57,240 of 337,704 candidate records with a 4.74% populace loss.
read the paper →The population-view harness, as a standalone referee
Energy distance, calibration-blind coverage, classifier AUC, and an uncapped tail block — proven inside imputation-paper; the standalone popdgp methods paper has not been started.
read the status →What running imputation and calibration together does
Realized landmines, repairability, the target-vs-survey Pareto frontier, effective-support collapse — four questions, zero experiments run yet.
read the plan →Populace dynamics: an open, scored longitudinal layer for policy microsimulation
Trajectory-weighted calibration, transitions as conditional models, and a scoring protocol. First validation domain: U.S. Social Security.
read the paper →Country model papers (tax and benefit rules by jurisdiction) live on policyengine.org research, not here — this index covers only the populace data-construction stack.